Research

Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the United States

Toman Barsbai, Andreas Steinmayr and Christoph Winter

Journal of Labor Economics, 2025, 43(3): 843–883

Article (PDF)Kiel WPCReAM DP
Area chart: annual wage loss over the first ten years in the U.S., split into lower hourly wages, fewer hours, less employment and occupational downgrading.
Decomposition of the effect of a 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate in the year of immigration on annual wage income (Figure 5). Barsbai, Steinmayr and Winter (2025), Journal of Labor Economics, Figure 5.

Abstract

We analyze the impact of economic conditions at arrival on the economic integration of family-sponsored migrants in the United States. A 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate at arrival decreases annual wage income by 4% in the short run and 2% in the longer run. The loss in wage income results primarily from lower hourly wages due to occupational downgrading. Migrant and family networks help mitigate the negative labor market effects. Migrants who arrive during a recession take up occupations with higher concentrations of fellow countrypeople and are more likely to reside with family members, potentially reducing their geographical mobility.

Cite (BibTeX)
@article{Barsbai2025immigrating,
  author      = {Barsbai, Toman and Steinmayr, Andreas and Winter, Christoph},
  title       = {{Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the United States}},
  journal     = {Journal of Labor Economics},
  year        = {2025},
  volume      = {43},
  number      = {3},
  pages       = {843--883},
  doi         = {10.1086/730121}
}

All publications as BibTeX

Earlier versions

  • Working Papers in Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck, No. 2022-01 (2022), "Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the U.S."
  • CReAM Discussion Paper No. 01/22 (2022)
  • Kiel Working Paper No. 2240 (2023)

In the media

Blogs and research summaries

Presented at

  • Invited seminar, Amsterdam · May 2022
  • NBER Conference: Immigrants and the U.S. Economy · Mar 2022
  • 11th Annual International Conference on Immigration in OECD Countries, Esch-sur-Alzette · Dec 2021
  • IHS Workshop Arbeitsmarktökonomie 2021, Vienna · Nov 2021
  • Invited seminar, Lund · Sep 2021
  • Annual Conference of the Canadian Economics Association · Jun 2021